Fort Erie Trainers: A Continued Presence at the Mountain

by Chris Longshot

Most would agree that one of the most difficult aspects of handicapping races at Mountaineer is the daily and continued presence of shippers from other circuits. While it has been well chronicled by Mountaineer enthusiasts, the importance of Kentucky horses showing up in MSW races at the mountain and their overall high hit rate, one cannot look at a Mountain card these days and not see multiple runners who’s last race was in Canada, specifically, Fort Erie Racetrack in Ontario. This has created a perplexing situation for many handicappers who are trying to decipher which ones are here begging to be claimed and which ones are well spotted by their trainers. What makes it increasingly difficult is that most of these FE trainers have been very successful in their home circuit, boasting very respectable percentages. Thus, the million dollar question that is left to be answered: How does the Fort Erie form translate to the Mountaineer form? In my opinion, one of the best ways to assess these trainers is to assess their past successes at Mountaineer because most, if not all who follow the Mountain, know it’s what they do at the Mountain that counts, not Fort Erie.

In 2007, was when the flux of FE trainers was most prominent. The most notable FE trainers during the 2007 racing year at Mountaineer were Robert Johnston (21%), Kevin Buttigieg (26%), Mark Fournier (30%), Stacy Cooper (34%) and the most successful trainer at the 2007 meet was Don MacRae at a whopping (37%). Most interesting, of the five trainers mentioned above, four of them hit for a higher rate at the mountain than at Fort Erie and the fifth was just a few percentage points behind. Obviously, starts would have to be taken into consideration but one could then conclude that Fort Erie horses would improve and run well at the mountain now and in the future. The overall win rate for FE shippers that year was 21%, a resounding 50% were in the money yet a negative return of investment of .58.

As the 2007 meet ended at Mountaineer, and 2008 racing year approached, many of these trainers went back to Fort Erie and continued their success. This time however, a new faced emerged out of the pack, trainer Michael Newell, scored his first ever trainer title at FE, saddling 36 winners. After the FE meet ended in October, many of these trainers, with the exception of Fournier, who had sold off his horses to Jeff Radosevich, have made their annual trek back to the Mountain. Based on their past success, one might conclude there horses would be “live” and well meant. In the meantime, a new FE invader, Paula Loescher, had come to try her trade here at the mountain but has had little success, hitting at a lowly 4% hit rate. At the current Mountaineer meet, Robert Johnston is hitting at (20%), Kevin Buttigieg (28%) and Stacy Cooper is down from last year, hitting at a 22% rate. The Mountaineer super trainer, Don MacRae has stayed in Canada, choosing to run his horses at Woodbine and to no surprise is having great success. Ironically, the leading trainer at FE this past year, Michael Newell is at a lousy 9% hit rate, proving once again that it matters only what they do here, not anywhere else. I’m sure Mr. Newell can’t wait for the next FE meet, though rumor has it they may not race there in 2009. That being said, if you have lost the rent money backing Newell horses at the mountain, don’t be all too upset, I can assure you that if he doesn't get on track here, he will at another track, he’s too good of a trainer and a streaky one at that. The best part, due to the dismal efforts of his horses at the mountain, his horses will leave the gate at boxcar prices! In my opinion, all his horses need is a change of scenery; it’s just a Mountaineer thing.

So what can us Mountaineer enthusiasts conclude about these Fort Erie trainers and horses. If the current percentages hold true, they will continue to run well and win races at the mountain but I would be cautious since some previous successful trainers are having slightly less successful meets than previously. Lastly, it should also be mentioned that the other track in Canada, Woodbine Racetrack, their horses tend not to fair so well, hitting at a 13% hit rate at the Mountain. I have an angle I like to play, it involves shooting against short price Woodbine horses. They will look unbeatable on Beyer’s and current form but I will only back them as long shots at the mountain. For some reason, the Woodbine horses do not like the “quirkiness” of the Mountaineer surface, I know we all feel their pain.