by Ralph the Cat
It hit me the other night, the jockey colony at Mountaineer could make a great rendition of the Wizard of Oz. I think Murph would be the Tin Man, in search of a heart. I have much respect for Murph, he WAS one of the most polished riders to ever ride at Mountaineer and the times I spoke with him it was easy to like him. Unfortunately, his heart has always been in question, but now, at the age of 44 years old, his athletic ability might be just as big of a problem. If you didn't see an aged Murph in the saddle this past week, you have plenty of time to see the eye doctor by Saturdays card. He sat on numerous live mounts to start off the meet, but struggled to say the least, maybe his best ride came in a 3 horse race as he crawled away to win by nearly 9 lengths on the 3/5 favorite. Somebody get some oil to loosen up those joints of his, a heart wouldn't hurt either.
Tho Nguyen is clearly in search of a brain. With names like Stokes, Parker and Whitney not picking up a large number of the mounts, why on earth do guys like Vickers, Murphy, Ccamaque, Hernandez and Davila have more mounts than him? Yes, hes always been a "limited stable" kind of rider, but why on earth wouldn't he take advantage of the current situation? Like a scarecrow filled with straw, he can easily catch fire, but not unless he gets the mounts. He is obviously in search of a brain, or better yet, an agent.
Vickers can easily be considered the cowardly lion. His rides last year were awful at times. Not to mention hes one of the least stylish riders out there for sure. He doesn't appear to be much of a jockey, much like the Lion from the Wizard of Oz doesn't appear to be much of a lion. But by the end of the story, the lion realizes even though he looks like a panzy most of the time, hes brave enough to act in the face of fear, much like Vickers.
Rex fits the Wicked Witch of the East as good as any, with his girlish attributes and mind set at times. However, he often does things on horses that others cant, much like how the witch does things on a broom that others can't. The witch isn't in the movie much at all, but when she arrives she makes a big scene, much like the legitimate contenders that Rex stops by for. I just hope by the end of this movie, hes not around, much like the wicked witch of the east.
Lets get one thing straight though, much of the movie takes place in the Magical Land of Oz. Oswald Pereira sits one win shy of taking over the lead and will have the number of mounts it takes to win the academy award for "Best Jockey" to appear in a Mountaineer Meet.
While all this is going down, you can catch Chris Longshot hanging himself in the back ground with picks that even a Wizard can't figure out.
Hey, its the 70th anniversary of the movie, a remake might be possible.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Mountaineer Racing Summed Up In One Word: Bias
By Chris Longshot
Looking back on the 2008 version of Mountaineer racing, I cannot help but think I could sum it up in one simple word: bias. Obviously, not surprising to most Mountaineer enthusiasts, since most would agree Mountaineer has generally been a speed dominant track. Of course there were nights where stalkers and closers would do well but on most nights, short priced chalk were wiring fields with half of the field in their own race 20 lengths back. Towards the end of the year, it became quite apparent that if a speed bias was not in effect, an inside post bias/path bias was. This type a bias did not favor speed, stalkers or closers, just the inside posts, specifically posts 1-6 and specifically in the stretch. A path bias soon developed at Mountaineer and as a result playing outside horses(7-10)especially ones who had no speed was a recipe for disaster and for your bankroll. For a lot of longshot enthusiasts, this was not good news. Many of Mountaineer's longshots, who had a sudden reversal of forms have come from wide closers sweeping by the field late in the stretch or by certain track conditions waking them up. Days of longshots going to the top and wiring fields were long gone, these days they run for a half and quit. In the past, a wide bias was much more pronounced but not in the year 2008. In the last few months alone, I have witnessed numerous higher priced closers, who were just about on even terms or a couple lengths back from their counterparts entering the stretch and inexplicably hung or looked like they were running in quicksand, making up no further ground. A great example of this was back on December 29th. The horse in question was the #7 horse, Creative Edge at 33-1 in Mnr's 5th, look at the replay to get a better understanding of my point. Creative Edge raced wide the whole race began to make a big move nearing the turn, thought Davila should have stayed closer to the rail or dipped in further to the rail, it was open but I guess he didn't know a bias was in play for months. So they come around the far turn, of course a couple of the short priced inside horses are battling up front, appear to be tiring but the #7 Creative Edge appears to be coming best of all out wide, for some reason Davila continues to bring the horse out yet another path, the horse then is making no further impression and the speeds on the inside are continuing on easily. Now no doubt the winner was legit, being the post time favorite anyway, the second horse ran an unbelievable race at 87-1 from the #8 post no less but did flash speed unlike the #7. My overall point is that on a non biased track IMO, the #7 horse goes right by the tiring leaders and wins at 33-1. Now I know most would suggest that the horse simply hung, after making up a lot ground around the turn but I don't believe that to be the case. Shortly after "flattening out" under the right handed whip the horse sways over to another path closer to the rail and suddenly now starts gaining again but unfortunately much to late to get to the leaders. This is just one example and there are many others of closers who have made big moves around the turn only to flatten out mid stretch while inside horses glide along easily. Its a big reason why more than a few have been frustrated with the short prices there lately. The closers/ mid pack horses have to run so big to win, especially entering the stretch wide. So one might say, I'll put the #7 Creative Edge on my stable alert and wait till he gets a more favorable post since he ran against the bit. He would run overlaid and I would be rewarded for my observations at a fat price. Strange thing is, looking at entries, miraculously a lot of the chalks have been drawn to the inside. Is this done by lottery or is it just a coincidence? I don't know, now that I think of it, I have never see 3 or 4 longshots in the first 3 or 4 posts at Mountaineer together as of late, I guess only when the track is outside bias I will see this. When you do see a longshot drawn towards the rail, there usually so hopeless that no bias would improve their performance. Guess we will get no help from the person that does the entries. There is also an a bias that is not as easily perceptible. Its when a horse is almost on even terms rounding the turn. Visually, he's 1 maybe 2 lengths behind, however, when they straighten, he's suddenly 4 to 5 lengths behind the field, watch it, its pretty cool, what happened? can a horse flatten out around a turn? Seems to me the inside horses get a nice slingshot around the turn, getting an extra boost I guess, while the outside horses stays where they were originally, unless they do go backwards and forward at the same time. So not to overbeat a point, the inside paths have been the place to be, everyone knows it, its amazing how many jocks from outside posts refuse to go to the rail and come up there late to be competitive, I can assure you its open at some point. It's really the their only chance of winning, if they can't get the lead clearly and get over to the rail. Yes they will be prominent early if they have speed or can at least stalk but won't be around late I can assure you. Sometimes I find it hilarious how many jocks can't figure out a bias, especially at a bias track at Mountaineer. The top guys can but usually the jocks piloting longshots cannot or are scared by the rail. So what do we have took look forward to in 2009 you might ask? Probably more chalks drawn to the inside, more longshots to the outer posts. Seems Mountaineer no longer likes chaos aspect of a few years ago, they much prefer the chalk to keep rolling in. Between the anti wide bias, supertrainers, elimination of Dale's stock and sharper betting public, its no wonder the chalk players were thriving in 2008, while the longshot players were puking in there soup as mentioned in a previous blog. But there is yet another reason for the short prices, non competitive fields and decreased quality of racing, explained in detail sometime this week before the racing resumes, part 3: synthetic surfaces. Lastly, feel free to comment on the blog, agree, disagree or offer some insight yourself on you experiences with the biases there, I will admit I'm not great at tracking biases, just wanted to pass along the little I could.
Looking back on the 2008 version of Mountaineer racing, I cannot help but think I could sum it up in one simple word: bias. Obviously, not surprising to most Mountaineer enthusiasts, since most would agree Mountaineer has generally been a speed dominant track. Of course there were nights where stalkers and closers would do well but on most nights, short priced chalk were wiring fields with half of the field in their own race 20 lengths back. Towards the end of the year, it became quite apparent that if a speed bias was not in effect, an inside post bias/path bias was. This type a bias did not favor speed, stalkers or closers, just the inside posts, specifically posts 1-6 and specifically in the stretch. A path bias soon developed at Mountaineer and as a result playing outside horses(7-10)especially ones who had no speed was a recipe for disaster and for your bankroll. For a lot of longshot enthusiasts, this was not good news. Many of Mountaineer's longshots, who had a sudden reversal of forms have come from wide closers sweeping by the field late in the stretch or by certain track conditions waking them up. Days of longshots going to the top and wiring fields were long gone, these days they run for a half and quit. In the past, a wide bias was much more pronounced but not in the year 2008. In the last few months alone, I have witnessed numerous higher priced closers, who were just about on even terms or a couple lengths back from their counterparts entering the stretch and inexplicably hung or looked like they were running in quicksand, making up no further ground. A great example of this was back on December 29th. The horse in question was the #7 horse, Creative Edge at 33-1 in Mnr's 5th, look at the replay to get a better understanding of my point. Creative Edge raced wide the whole race began to make a big move nearing the turn, thought Davila should have stayed closer to the rail or dipped in further to the rail, it was open but I guess he didn't know a bias was in play for months. So they come around the far turn, of course a couple of the short priced inside horses are battling up front, appear to be tiring but the #7 Creative Edge appears to be coming best of all out wide, for some reason Davila continues to bring the horse out yet another path, the horse then is making no further impression and the speeds on the inside are continuing on easily. Now no doubt the winner was legit, being the post time favorite anyway, the second horse ran an unbelievable race at 87-1 from the #8 post no less but did flash speed unlike the #7. My overall point is that on a non biased track IMO, the #7 horse goes right by the tiring leaders and wins at 33-1. Now I know most would suggest that the horse simply hung, after making up a lot ground around the turn but I don't believe that to be the case. Shortly after "flattening out" under the right handed whip the horse sways over to another path closer to the rail and suddenly now starts gaining again but unfortunately much to late to get to the leaders. This is just one example and there are many others of closers who have made big moves around the turn only to flatten out mid stretch while inside horses glide along easily. Its a big reason why more than a few have been frustrated with the short prices there lately. The closers/ mid pack horses have to run so big to win, especially entering the stretch wide. So one might say, I'll put the #7 Creative Edge on my stable alert and wait till he gets a more favorable post since he ran against the bit. He would run overlaid and I would be rewarded for my observations at a fat price. Strange thing is, looking at entries, miraculously a lot of the chalks have been drawn to the inside. Is this done by lottery or is it just a coincidence? I don't know, now that I think of it, I have never see 3 or 4 longshots in the first 3 or 4 posts at Mountaineer together as of late, I guess only when the track is outside bias I will see this. When you do see a longshot drawn towards the rail, there usually so hopeless that no bias would improve their performance. Guess we will get no help from the person that does the entries. There is also an a bias that is not as easily perceptible. Its when a horse is almost on even terms rounding the turn. Visually, he's 1 maybe 2 lengths behind, however, when they straighten, he's suddenly 4 to 5 lengths behind the field, watch it, its pretty cool, what happened? can a horse flatten out around a turn? Seems to me the inside horses get a nice slingshot around the turn, getting an extra boost I guess, while the outside horses stays where they were originally, unless they do go backwards and forward at the same time. So not to overbeat a point, the inside paths have been the place to be, everyone knows it, its amazing how many jocks from outside posts refuse to go to the rail and come up there late to be competitive, I can assure you its open at some point. It's really the their only chance of winning, if they can't get the lead clearly and get over to the rail. Yes they will be prominent early if they have speed or can at least stalk but won't be around late I can assure you. Sometimes I find it hilarious how many jocks can't figure out a bias, especially at a bias track at Mountaineer. The top guys can but usually the jocks piloting longshots cannot or are scared by the rail. So what do we have took look forward to in 2009 you might ask? Probably more chalks drawn to the inside, more longshots to the outer posts. Seems Mountaineer no longer likes chaos aspect of a few years ago, they much prefer the chalk to keep rolling in. Between the anti wide bias, supertrainers, elimination of Dale's stock and sharper betting public, its no wonder the chalk players were thriving in 2008, while the longshot players were puking in there soup as mentioned in a previous blog. But there is yet another reason for the short prices, non competitive fields and decreased quality of racing, explained in detail sometime this week before the racing resumes, part 3: synthetic surfaces. Lastly, feel free to comment on the blog, agree, disagree or offer some insight yourself on you experiences with the biases there, I will admit I'm not great at tracking biases, just wanted to pass along the little I could.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Mountaineer Racing: Too Cold to Care
Ralph the Cat
Although a racing card awaits us, I couldn't care any less. We underwent one of the coldest nights in years. The temperatures were below zero most of the night and barely creeped above zero throughout the day today. The chances of us running a card in the next couple days is as likely as the Green Monkey winning the Classic this year. It's way too cold to care.
Although a racing card awaits us, I couldn't care any less. We underwent one of the coldest nights in years. The temperatures were below zero most of the night and barely creeped above zero throughout the day today. The chances of us running a card in the next couple days is as likely as the Green Monkey winning the Classic this year. It's way too cold to care.
Friday, January 9, 2009
Mountaineer Jockeys: Age Matter?
by Ralph the Cat
With the recent discussion on who will take home this up and coming jockey title I figured why not talk about some of these ole timers still getting a leg up. Whats considered to be too old for a jockey? Does age matter? When handicapping, do you consider the age of a rider if you know the circuit/jockeys well enough? or is your main concern ability? For the most part I think ability directly relates to age. But there's always the guys that don't look their age. You know, that 20 year old bug that rides like a stiff 50 year old. How about that 20 year old that just rides a bit cautious like an older vet that just wants to make it to the finish line. Then you have those guys pushing 40 that ride as gutsy and athletic as if they were in their prime. The reason why I brought this up is I don't think the Mountaineer community realizes how old our top riders are. The youngest set of top riders were Rex and Ricky who are in their early 20s, but it appears a future at Mountaineer may be doubtful. Besides them, the youngest jockeys that compete at the top our Oswald Pereira at 34 and the streaky Joe Stokes 31, who rides at several different circuits throughout the year. The names we are so use to seeing on top at Mountaineer our guys like Tho Nguyen 37, Deshawn Parker who just turned 38, Dana Whitney who will be turning 39, Scott Spieth who's 44, and Andrew Ramgeet 45, not to mention the recently retired Chad Murphy who is 44.
I've been browsing forums for a couple years now, and never did I see as many Mountaineer riding "effort" complaints as I have seen this past year. All were directed at these top riders. I was surprised and glad to see threads about how guys like Jesus Barria deserve more credit, how Arizona Miller puts in solid rides, how guys like Freddy P need better mounts, how Luis Rivera is ballsy, the list goes on and on. I'm pleased to see the handicappers step up and make these bold observations about the top riders, so I don't feel like the Grinch that knocks too many "highly respected riders". I was beginning to think I was losing my mind, did that jockey even want to win that race? I've asked myself that question one too many times. I'm just glad to see the Mountaineer community make such solid observations on Mountaineer jockeys, beyond just saying, ..."that rider sucks"... I will say this though, before Parker even made that huge run at 100 wins in one meet this year, there weren't many complaints about "Mr. Dependable". When you get zero complaints from the guys who watch every race and every move, you're destined for success. Hes one rider where age does not show, closing in on forty, he looks at his best. I cant say the same for the others in that group of "40" year olds.
With the recent discussion on who will take home this up and coming jockey title I figured why not talk about some of these ole timers still getting a leg up. Whats considered to be too old for a jockey? Does age matter? When handicapping, do you consider the age of a rider if you know the circuit/jockeys well enough? or is your main concern ability? For the most part I think ability directly relates to age. But there's always the guys that don't look their age. You know, that 20 year old bug that rides like a stiff 50 year old. How about that 20 year old that just rides a bit cautious like an older vet that just wants to make it to the finish line. Then you have those guys pushing 40 that ride as gutsy and athletic as if they were in their prime. The reason why I brought this up is I don't think the Mountaineer community realizes how old our top riders are. The youngest set of top riders were Rex and Ricky who are in their early 20s, but it appears a future at Mountaineer may be doubtful. Besides them, the youngest jockeys that compete at the top our Oswald Pereira at 34 and the streaky Joe Stokes 31, who rides at several different circuits throughout the year. The names we are so use to seeing on top at Mountaineer our guys like Tho Nguyen 37, Deshawn Parker who just turned 38, Dana Whitney who will be turning 39, Scott Spieth who's 44, and Andrew Ramgeet 45, not to mention the recently retired Chad Murphy who is 44.
I've been browsing forums for a couple years now, and never did I see as many Mountaineer riding "effort" complaints as I have seen this past year. All were directed at these top riders. I was surprised and glad to see threads about how guys like Jesus Barria deserve more credit, how Arizona Miller puts in solid rides, how guys like Freddy P need better mounts, how Luis Rivera is ballsy, the list goes on and on. I'm pleased to see the handicappers step up and make these bold observations about the top riders, so I don't feel like the Grinch that knocks too many "highly respected riders". I was beginning to think I was losing my mind, did that jockey even want to win that race? I've asked myself that question one too many times. I'm just glad to see the Mountaineer community make such solid observations on Mountaineer jockeys, beyond just saying, ..."that rider sucks"... I will say this though, before Parker even made that huge run at 100 wins in one meet this year, there weren't many complaints about "Mr. Dependable". When you get zero complaints from the guys who watch every race and every move, you're destined for success. Hes one rider where age does not show, closing in on forty, he looks at his best. I cant say the same for the others in that group of "40" year olds.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Who's Man Enough? Ride Hard or Die Trying
by Ralph the Cat
Some jockeys live by it. They lay everything on the line just to win a race. At this up and coming winter meet at Mountaineer expect to see a jockey colony that's motivated more than ever, something we haven't seen for some time. The 2nd winningest rider in the Nation, Deshawn Parker, is set for the Oaklawn meet and Rex Stokes is busy at Turfway Park. An amazing opportunity has arose for jockeys that have been taking the backseats to Parker and Rex the past few years. I don't know what Whitney has in store, but he hasn't been putting the time in at Mountaineer like in years past. The 34 year old Trinidad native with a wicked right handed stick is among the favorites to sit atop the Mountain standings, you may know him as Oswald Pereira, who recently hit the 1,000 win mark. The 36 year old Vietnamese native, Tho Nguyen hopes to take control of the meet with some of the top ship-in trainers at his side.
Ironically, I found these 2 riders to be the most dependable in the slop. It will be a battle in the slop for sure this winter, with riders like Perez, Barria, Rivera and plenty more capable riders to challenge. With Oswald Pereira's grit in these type of conditions its going to have to take some pretty stupid trainers not to replace the Parker mounts with Ozzie mounts. The agents of Tho and Ozzie are going to decide the outcome of this 3 month race. My money's on Ozzie, Ozzie, Ozzie, Oy,Oy,Oy.
Some jockeys live by it. They lay everything on the line just to win a race. At this up and coming winter meet at Mountaineer expect to see a jockey colony that's motivated more than ever, something we haven't seen for some time. The 2nd winningest rider in the Nation, Deshawn Parker, is set for the Oaklawn meet and Rex Stokes is busy at Turfway Park. An amazing opportunity has arose for jockeys that have been taking the backseats to Parker and Rex the past few years. I don't know what Whitney has in store, but he hasn't been putting the time in at Mountaineer like in years past. The 34 year old Trinidad native with a wicked right handed stick is among the favorites to sit atop the Mountain standings, you may know him as Oswald Pereira, who recently hit the 1,000 win mark. The 36 year old Vietnamese native, Tho Nguyen hopes to take control of the meet with some of the top ship-in trainers at his side.
Ironically, I found these 2 riders to be the most dependable in the slop. It will be a battle in the slop for sure this winter, with riders like Perez, Barria, Rivera and plenty more capable riders to challenge. With Oswald Pereira's grit in these type of conditions its going to have to take some pretty stupid trainers not to replace the Parker mounts with Ozzie mounts. The agents of Tho and Ozzie are going to decide the outcome of this 3 month race. My money's on Ozzie, Ozzie, Ozzie, Oy,Oy,Oy.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
A Solution That Will Never Be Used
by Ralph the Cat
What was Mountaineers best racing season for bettors and horsemen? Was it 2002? maybe 2003? or even 2004? Those couple of years would be my answer. The claiming game was RED hot and the bettors had wide open fields. What has changed besides the obvious? The death of Dale, the opening of PID, I could go on and on. One problem strikes me more than anything, it has become a growing concern of mine and I feel its being majorly overlooked by management. Here's the problem, try and answer me this, why is it that there are horses that are only worth $500 running in $5k claiming races? Why does the claiming races for lifetime horses skip from $5k to $10k to $15k? and then the wide open races only go from $5k to $7.5k to $10k to $15k etc.?
Before you get the wrong idea and say, look, Mountaineer management cant control the stock that's entered in their races, hear me out. Mountaineer management can fix the problem, but that would require extra time and work, so managements simple answer to the question is its what the horsemen want. It's not. Hear me out, it's not! Maybe 5 years ago it was in the best interest to give Mountaineer a new image of a "bigger and better" track by having the lowest claiming race a $5k race. But by golly Churchill Downs bottom claimer is $5k, we aren't Churchill Downs people! We are the mountain located in a little town called Chester! Great, we gained Grade II status for our WV Derby but does that mean putting the proper tag on our claiming horses is a crime? Would it make it a Grade III again because we run $4k claiming races? Very, very successful and big name tracks still run bottom races of $4k, but Mountaineer chooses not to.
In the middle of 2004 management changed the condition book to the present racing structure. Before that we had open races of 4k,5k,6.5k,10k,12.5k etc... it was a great structure. We had both 4k and 5k condition races as well. Please! Lets go back! By utilizing this racing structure you create more competitive fields. Guys with red hot horse used to drop into $5k races and avoid the $4k level, it wasn't a guarantee but more often than none the $5k races proved to be tougher than the $4k races. It separated these cheaper horse, because a trainer would be plan stupid to think he could compete in a $5k race if his horse didn't run good for $4k last time out. Every horse that was entered in for $5k seemed like a decent horse, while the #4k races seemed to draw the lowest quality animals like it intended. If we have 20+ horse entered in a MDN $5k race or 2 Lifetime race, why don't we offer a lower and higher tag? why should we run races where there are 2 horses in a race that will run 20 lengths apart?
Am I the only one here that thinks the current $5k to $10k lifetime jump is insane too? So my horse wins an impressive $5k race for non winners of two lifetime and now I have to go to $10k if I think my horse will get claimed next time out? Charlestown has a fantastic claiming structures that makes each and every field a bit more exciting than Mountaineers fields. But why do I even waste my time, convincing Mountaineer management and the top horsemen alike of this would be like convincing God himself that he didn't create the world that we know of.
What was Mountaineers best racing season for bettors and horsemen? Was it 2002? maybe 2003? or even 2004? Those couple of years would be my answer. The claiming game was RED hot and the bettors had wide open fields. What has changed besides the obvious? The death of Dale, the opening of PID, I could go on and on. One problem strikes me more than anything, it has become a growing concern of mine and I feel its being majorly overlooked by management. Here's the problem, try and answer me this, why is it that there are horses that are only worth $500 running in $5k claiming races? Why does the claiming races for lifetime horses skip from $5k to $10k to $15k? and then the wide open races only go from $5k to $7.5k to $10k to $15k etc.?
Before you get the wrong idea and say, look, Mountaineer management cant control the stock that's entered in their races, hear me out. Mountaineer management can fix the problem, but that would require extra time and work, so managements simple answer to the question is its what the horsemen want. It's not. Hear me out, it's not! Maybe 5 years ago it was in the best interest to give Mountaineer a new image of a "bigger and better" track by having the lowest claiming race a $5k race. But by golly Churchill Downs bottom claimer is $5k, we aren't Churchill Downs people! We are the mountain located in a little town called Chester! Great, we gained Grade II status for our WV Derby but does that mean putting the proper tag on our claiming horses is a crime? Would it make it a Grade III again because we run $4k claiming races? Very, very successful and big name tracks still run bottom races of $4k, but Mountaineer chooses not to.
In the middle of 2004 management changed the condition book to the present racing structure. Before that we had open races of 4k,5k,6.5k,10k,12.5k etc... it was a great structure. We had both 4k and 5k condition races as well. Please! Lets go back! By utilizing this racing structure you create more competitive fields. Guys with red hot horse used to drop into $5k races and avoid the $4k level, it wasn't a guarantee but more often than none the $5k races proved to be tougher than the $4k races. It separated these cheaper horse, because a trainer would be plan stupid to think he could compete in a $5k race if his horse didn't run good for $4k last time out. Every horse that was entered in for $5k seemed like a decent horse, while the #4k races seemed to draw the lowest quality animals like it intended. If we have 20+ horse entered in a MDN $5k race or 2 Lifetime race, why don't we offer a lower and higher tag? why should we run races where there are 2 horses in a race that will run 20 lengths apart?
Am I the only one here that thinks the current $5k to $10k lifetime jump is insane too? So my horse wins an impressive $5k race for non winners of two lifetime and now I have to go to $10k if I think my horse will get claimed next time out? Charlestown has a fantastic claiming structures that makes each and every field a bit more exciting than Mountaineers fields. But why do I even waste my time, convincing Mountaineer management and the top horsemen alike of this would be like convincing God himself that he didn't create the world that we know of.
Friday, January 2, 2009
Longshot Players Take it on The Chin in 2008
by Chris Longshot
Looking back on 2008, there are three things I thought I would never be alive to see, one, was a black president, two was the Phillies winning the World Series and three, most shockingly, the “chalkiness” of Mountaineer racing in 2008!! If I was playing Texas Hold Em Poker I would have went “all in” and lost all my chips on the prospect of Mountaineer turning into a “favorite track”. Have to admit I didn't see it coming, still in denial actually, refusing to accept this reversal of fortune. But the statistics don’t lie, in 2008, favorites won at a near 40% clip, higher than the national average, the favorite was ITM at over 70% and we saw the rebirth of the “supertrainer” almost overnight at the mountain. After months and months of less competitive racing, short chalks, wire jobs and strung out fields, it would be safe to say that 2008 at the mountain was longshot players Waterloo!!! The “mad bomber” and his cronies had a banner year, where they were marching through the streets of Chester as chalk after chalk after chalk paraded in, while longshot players were left gasping for air, or better yet their horses were. So what is going to be the outlook for 2009? I’m afraid not much is going to change but I have hope, my mom always told me the first thing you do in solving a problem is to identify what has caused this trend to develop in the first place, so let’s indulge in one of the 3 causes and feel free to comment, whether you agree or disagree.
The unfortunate and untimely death of Waterford’s finest; Dale Baird, sent shockwaves throughout the whole racing industry. Despite, his harshest critics, who would have put an asterisk next to Baird’s unprecedented win total, most would admit that Baird’s loss was monumental. However, many could easily conclude that racing at Mountaineer would never be the same without the “Wizard”. The impact would be great but to what extent?? Secondly, what would happen to Baird’s horses?? Initially, Penny Mathias, Baird’s assistant trainer, took over the training and had some moderate success. A few months later Baird’s son, Bart had taken over a few of his dad’s horses with little success. While Baird’s death was untimely, the impact and the elimination of his runners from the MNR ‘gene pool” has affected Mountaineer racing greatly. Many of Baird’s horses filtered down to lower percentage outfits and though most did not improve off Baird, many of Baird’s horses brought home paychecks for their claimants.
Throughout history, there have been numerous instances were other people have taken advantage of others peoples misfortune. This is no more evident then the rise of the “supertrainer” at the mountain. Let me explain, many in the industry respected Dale’s stock and knew if they expected to win at the mountain they had to come strong or not at all. Most did come well represented but generally still left the mountain without the winner’s portion of the purse. Some trainers were scared away, despite the increased purses and extra incentive to come. But as good as Baird was, his reputation proceeded himself. His horses often took “dumb money” from less polished newbie’s. This created nice juicy overlays for the longshot players, willing to shoot against Baird’s horses. When Baird died, many trainers started to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Trainers like Shaneyfelt and Englehart to name a few, began to make the trip to the Northern Pan Handle but this time stocked with more runners. The question soon was, who would be the next trainer to dominate the Mountain? Most MNR followers would have place their bets that it would be Jeff Radosevich, who won a trainer title from Baird a few years back. However, he had an extremely difficult year at the mountain in 2008. The two mentioned above, along with another Baird family member, MJ Baird, have been at the top of the standings for most of the year. The surprise is not that these trainers have been successful, they are all well respected but it’s the degree at which it has been achieved. Doug Shaneyfelt was a 50% trainer at one point, Englehart a cut below but with almost equal percentage. Scooter Davis, had a sudden rebirth, reverting back to when he was a dominant trainer at the mountain. The greatest impact has been felt in the allowance ranks, where horses trained by these guys have the fields at their mercy on most nights. Even in the condition claimers their presence is felt, their horses are going to post at 3/5, 4/5 and 90% of the time, they have not disappointed their followers. In my opinion, the rise of these supertainers, the elimination of Dale and his stock, and a sharper betting public has contributed to the longshot player’s worst nightmare, Broke Back Mountain!!! Longshot players have suffered, lower percentage outfits have suffered, the quality of racing has suffered, while chalk players have strived and handle has gone up generally. It seems more players are more comfortable with the more “formful” mountain then the indecipherable mess of the past few years. Lastly, longshot players need to forget 2008 and look forward to 2009 because as many players who religiously follow the mountain know, things are known to change unexpectedly, 50% trainer this year, 15% trainer next year, will the march of favorites continue or will the longshot players get the last laugh, only time will tell but the unfortunate loss of Dale Baird and his stock even in death has flipped Mountaineer racing upside down for the good for some and the bad and the ugly for others. Next blog next week will be cause two, a follow up on another reason that longshot players were puking in their soup in 2008: track bias.
Looking back on 2008, there are three things I thought I would never be alive to see, one, was a black president, two was the Phillies winning the World Series and three, most shockingly, the “chalkiness” of Mountaineer racing in 2008!! If I was playing Texas Hold Em Poker I would have went “all in” and lost all my chips on the prospect of Mountaineer turning into a “favorite track”. Have to admit I didn't see it coming, still in denial actually, refusing to accept this reversal of fortune. But the statistics don’t lie, in 2008, favorites won at a near 40% clip, higher than the national average, the favorite was ITM at over 70% and we saw the rebirth of the “supertrainer” almost overnight at the mountain. After months and months of less competitive racing, short chalks, wire jobs and strung out fields, it would be safe to say that 2008 at the mountain was longshot players Waterloo!!! The “mad bomber” and his cronies had a banner year, where they were marching through the streets of Chester as chalk after chalk after chalk paraded in, while longshot players were left gasping for air, or better yet their horses were. So what is going to be the outlook for 2009? I’m afraid not much is going to change but I have hope, my mom always told me the first thing you do in solving a problem is to identify what has caused this trend to develop in the first place, so let’s indulge in one of the 3 causes and feel free to comment, whether you agree or disagree.
The unfortunate and untimely death of Waterford’s finest; Dale Baird, sent shockwaves throughout the whole racing industry. Despite, his harshest critics, who would have put an asterisk next to Baird’s unprecedented win total, most would admit that Baird’s loss was monumental. However, many could easily conclude that racing at Mountaineer would never be the same without the “Wizard”. The impact would be great but to what extent?? Secondly, what would happen to Baird’s horses?? Initially, Penny Mathias, Baird’s assistant trainer, took over the training and had some moderate success. A few months later Baird’s son, Bart had taken over a few of his dad’s horses with little success. While Baird’s death was untimely, the impact and the elimination of his runners from the MNR ‘gene pool” has affected Mountaineer racing greatly. Many of Baird’s horses filtered down to lower percentage outfits and though most did not improve off Baird, many of Baird’s horses brought home paychecks for their claimants.
Throughout history, there have been numerous instances were other people have taken advantage of others peoples misfortune. This is no more evident then the rise of the “supertrainer” at the mountain. Let me explain, many in the industry respected Dale’s stock and knew if they expected to win at the mountain they had to come strong or not at all. Most did come well represented but generally still left the mountain without the winner’s portion of the purse. Some trainers were scared away, despite the increased purses and extra incentive to come. But as good as Baird was, his reputation proceeded himself. His horses often took “dumb money” from less polished newbie’s. This created nice juicy overlays for the longshot players, willing to shoot against Baird’s horses. When Baird died, many trainers started to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Trainers like Shaneyfelt and Englehart to name a few, began to make the trip to the Northern Pan Handle but this time stocked with more runners. The question soon was, who would be the next trainer to dominate the Mountain? Most MNR followers would have place their bets that it would be Jeff Radosevich, who won a trainer title from Baird a few years back. However, he had an extremely difficult year at the mountain in 2008. The two mentioned above, along with another Baird family member, MJ Baird, have been at the top of the standings for most of the year. The surprise is not that these trainers have been successful, they are all well respected but it’s the degree at which it has been achieved. Doug Shaneyfelt was a 50% trainer at one point, Englehart a cut below but with almost equal percentage. Scooter Davis, had a sudden rebirth, reverting back to when he was a dominant trainer at the mountain. The greatest impact has been felt in the allowance ranks, where horses trained by these guys have the fields at their mercy on most nights. Even in the condition claimers their presence is felt, their horses are going to post at 3/5, 4/5 and 90% of the time, they have not disappointed their followers. In my opinion, the rise of these supertainers, the elimination of Dale and his stock, and a sharper betting public has contributed to the longshot player’s worst nightmare, Broke Back Mountain!!! Longshot players have suffered, lower percentage outfits have suffered, the quality of racing has suffered, while chalk players have strived and handle has gone up generally. It seems more players are more comfortable with the more “formful” mountain then the indecipherable mess of the past few years. Lastly, longshot players need to forget 2008 and look forward to 2009 because as many players who religiously follow the mountain know, things are known to change unexpectedly, 50% trainer this year, 15% trainer next year, will the march of favorites continue or will the longshot players get the last laugh, only time will tell but the unfortunate loss of Dale Baird and his stock even in death has flipped Mountaineer racing upside down for the good for some and the bad and the ugly for others. Next blog next week will be cause two, a follow up on another reason that longshot players were puking in their soup in 2008: track bias.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
2008: The Year of Changes
by Ralph the Cat
2008 was a strange year for me and many others. We didn't have Dale Baird leveling the playing field with tough claimers and solid contenders in most races like we're used to seeing. It seemed like I watched the Super Trainers win races by 10 lengths or more one too many times. We saw Parker have the best meet of his life and finished an amazing 2nd place in total wins in North America. We watched Rex Stokes III put it dull efforts on bottom claimers and bettors questioning rides from guys like him and Whitney more than ever. Just when Mountaineer racing seemed like a year-round same ole same ole type of track, we ran into one of the most unusual years in its history. Throw in Presque Isle Downs meet pulling some horses and trainers away as well and you got some unusual looking overnighters coming from Mountaineer. Did I enjoy it? Yes, but I'm a sick, sick man and can't wait for 2009. Saturday January 17th, 2009, the most underrated opening day in our sport. From 7:00pm to 10:20pm there will be $2 million in handle on an old dirt oval in the back woods of some town called Chester.
2008 was a strange year for me and many others. We didn't have Dale Baird leveling the playing field with tough claimers and solid contenders in most races like we're used to seeing. It seemed like I watched the Super Trainers win races by 10 lengths or more one too many times. We saw Parker have the best meet of his life and finished an amazing 2nd place in total wins in North America. We watched Rex Stokes III put it dull efforts on bottom claimers and bettors questioning rides from guys like him and Whitney more than ever. Just when Mountaineer racing seemed like a year-round same ole same ole type of track, we ran into one of the most unusual years in its history. Throw in Presque Isle Downs meet pulling some horses and trainers away as well and you got some unusual looking overnighters coming from Mountaineer. Did I enjoy it? Yes, but I'm a sick, sick man and can't wait for 2009. Saturday January 17th, 2009, the most underrated opening day in our sport. From 7:00pm to 10:20pm there will be $2 million in handle on an old dirt oval in the back woods of some town called Chester.
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