by Ralph the Cat
I remember when we used to sit,
In the paddock area in Chester,
Oba - obaserving the 'ypocrites,
As they would mingle with the good people we meet.
Good races we won, oh, good races we've lost
Along the way.
In this great track, you can't forget your past;
So dry your tears, I seh.
No, player, no cry;
No, player, no cry.
'Ere, little darlin', The mountain will open soon,
So dry your tears, I seh.
No, player, no cry.
Its hard to believe a reggae song written more than 35 years ago is still played on the radio today. Bob Marley's hit song"No Women, No Cry" from 1975 was playing on the local radio station the moment I clicked to view this Saturdays overnighter. Unfortunately, it hit me hard when there was no overnighter for Saturday and I remembered there wouldn't be any MNR races this weekend. There's mountaineer players all over the world walking around with their heads down and a little less spunk in their step this week. Its going to be tough, but I'm here if any one needs to talk about it. All I can say is... "No player, No Cry"... because this Saturday afternoon you can pull up past performances for December 27ths card already. So don't shed no tears, you have work to do.
Everything's gonna be all right!
I said, everything's gonna be all right-a!
Everything's gonna be all right!
Everything's gonna be all right, now!
Everything's gonna be all right!
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Fort Erie Trainers: A Continued Presence at the Mountain
by Chris Longshot
Most would agree that one of the most difficult aspects of handicapping races at Mountaineer is the daily and continued presence of shippers from other circuits. While it has been well chronicled by Mountaineer enthusiasts, the importance of Kentucky horses showing up in MSW races at the mountain and their overall high hit rate, one cannot look at a Mountain card these days and not see multiple runners who’s last race was in Canada, specifically, Fort Erie Racetrack in Ontario. This has created a perplexing situation for many handicappers who are trying to decipher which ones are here begging to be claimed and which ones are well spotted by their trainers. What makes it increasingly difficult is that most of these FE trainers have been very successful in their home circuit, boasting very respectable percentages. Thus, the million dollar question that is left to be answered: How does the Fort Erie form translate to the Mountaineer form? In my opinion, one of the best ways to assess these trainers is to assess their past successes at Mountaineer because most, if not all who follow the Mountain, know it’s what they do at the Mountain that counts, not Fort Erie.
In 2007, was when the flux of FE trainers was most prominent. The most notable FE trainers during the 2007 racing year at Mountaineer were Robert Johnston (21%), Kevin Buttigieg (26%), Mark Fournier (30%), Stacy Cooper (34%) and the most successful trainer at the 2007 meet was Don MacRae at a whopping (37%). Most interesting, of the five trainers mentioned above, four of them hit for a higher rate at the mountain than at Fort Erie and the fifth was just a few percentage points behind. Obviously, starts would have to be taken into consideration but one could then conclude that Fort Erie horses would improve and run well at the mountain now and in the future. The overall win rate for FE shippers that year was 21%, a resounding 50% were in the money yet a negative return of investment of .58.
As the 2007 meet ended at Mountaineer, and 2008 racing year approached, many of these trainers went back to Fort Erie and continued their success. This time however, a new faced emerged out of the pack, trainer Michael Newell, scored his first ever trainer title at FE, saddling 36 winners. After the FE meet ended in October, many of these trainers, with the exception of Fournier, who had sold off his horses to Jeff Radosevich, have made their annual trek back to the Mountain. Based on their past success, one might conclude there horses would be “live” and well meant. In the meantime, a new FE invader, Paula Loescher, had come to try her trade here at the mountain but has had little success, hitting at a lowly 4% hit rate. At the current Mountaineer meet, Robert Johnston is hitting at (20%), Kevin Buttigieg (28%) and Stacy Cooper is down from last year, hitting at a 22% rate. The Mountaineer super trainer, Don MacRae has stayed in Canada, choosing to run his horses at Woodbine and to no surprise is having great success. Ironically, the leading trainer at FE this past year, Michael Newell is at a lousy 9% hit rate, proving once again that it matters only what they do here, not anywhere else. I’m sure Mr. Newell can’t wait for the next FE meet, though rumor has it they may not race there in 2009. That being said, if you have lost the rent money backing Newell horses at the mountain, don’t be all too upset, I can assure you that if he doesn't get on track here, he will at another track, he’s too good of a trainer and a streaky one at that. The best part, due to the dismal efforts of his horses at the mountain, his horses will leave the gate at boxcar prices! In my opinion, all his horses need is a change of scenery; it’s just a Mountaineer thing.
So what can us Mountaineer enthusiasts conclude about these Fort Erie trainers and horses. If the current percentages hold true, they will continue to run well and win races at the mountain but I would be cautious since some previous successful trainers are having slightly less successful meets than previously. Lastly, it should also be mentioned that the other track in Canada, Woodbine Racetrack, their horses tend not to fair so well, hitting at a 13% hit rate at the Mountain. I have an angle I like to play, it involves shooting against short price Woodbine horses. They will look unbeatable on Beyer’s and current form but I will only back them as long shots at the mountain. For some reason, the Woodbine horses do not like the “quirkiness” of the Mountaineer surface, I know we all feel their pain.
Most would agree that one of the most difficult aspects of handicapping races at Mountaineer is the daily and continued presence of shippers from other circuits. While it has been well chronicled by Mountaineer enthusiasts, the importance of Kentucky horses showing up in MSW races at the mountain and their overall high hit rate, one cannot look at a Mountain card these days and not see multiple runners who’s last race was in Canada, specifically, Fort Erie Racetrack in Ontario. This has created a perplexing situation for many handicappers who are trying to decipher which ones are here begging to be claimed and which ones are well spotted by their trainers. What makes it increasingly difficult is that most of these FE trainers have been very successful in their home circuit, boasting very respectable percentages. Thus, the million dollar question that is left to be answered: How does the Fort Erie form translate to the Mountaineer form? In my opinion, one of the best ways to assess these trainers is to assess their past successes at Mountaineer because most, if not all who follow the Mountain, know it’s what they do at the Mountain that counts, not Fort Erie.
In 2007, was when the flux of FE trainers was most prominent. The most notable FE trainers during the 2007 racing year at Mountaineer were Robert Johnston (21%), Kevin Buttigieg (26%), Mark Fournier (30%), Stacy Cooper (34%) and the most successful trainer at the 2007 meet was Don MacRae at a whopping (37%). Most interesting, of the five trainers mentioned above, four of them hit for a higher rate at the mountain than at Fort Erie and the fifth was just a few percentage points behind. Obviously, starts would have to be taken into consideration but one could then conclude that Fort Erie horses would improve and run well at the mountain now and in the future. The overall win rate for FE shippers that year was 21%, a resounding 50% were in the money yet a negative return of investment of .58.
As the 2007 meet ended at Mountaineer, and 2008 racing year approached, many of these trainers went back to Fort Erie and continued their success. This time however, a new faced emerged out of the pack, trainer Michael Newell, scored his first ever trainer title at FE, saddling 36 winners. After the FE meet ended in October, many of these trainers, with the exception of Fournier, who had sold off his horses to Jeff Radosevich, have made their annual trek back to the Mountain. Based on their past success, one might conclude there horses would be “live” and well meant. In the meantime, a new FE invader, Paula Loescher, had come to try her trade here at the mountain but has had little success, hitting at a lowly 4% hit rate. At the current Mountaineer meet, Robert Johnston is hitting at (20%), Kevin Buttigieg (28%) and Stacy Cooper is down from last year, hitting at a 22% rate. The Mountaineer super trainer, Don MacRae has stayed in Canada, choosing to run his horses at Woodbine and to no surprise is having great success. Ironically, the leading trainer at FE this past year, Michael Newell is at a lousy 9% hit rate, proving once again that it matters only what they do here, not anywhere else. I’m sure Mr. Newell can’t wait for the next FE meet, though rumor has it they may not race there in 2009. That being said, if you have lost the rent money backing Newell horses at the mountain, don’t be all too upset, I can assure you that if he doesn't get on track here, he will at another track, he’s too good of a trainer and a streaky one at that. The best part, due to the dismal efforts of his horses at the mountain, his horses will leave the gate at boxcar prices! In my opinion, all his horses need is a change of scenery; it’s just a Mountaineer thing.
So what can us Mountaineer enthusiasts conclude about these Fort Erie trainers and horses. If the current percentages hold true, they will continue to run well and win races at the mountain but I would be cautious since some previous successful trainers are having slightly less successful meets than previously. Lastly, it should also be mentioned that the other track in Canada, Woodbine Racetrack, their horses tend not to fair so well, hitting at a 13% hit rate at the Mountain. I have an angle I like to play, it involves shooting against short price Woodbine horses. They will look unbeatable on Beyer’s and current form but I will only back them as long shots at the mountain. For some reason, the Woodbine horses do not like the “quirkiness” of the Mountaineer surface, I know we all feel their pain.
What is Wrong With You People?
by Ralph the Cat
Okay, so I often feel I'm allowed to complain about Mountaineer more than your average player. I may be wrong, but who cares, it is what it is. I often wonder what is wrong with you players that complain about a stewards decision when you only get a few blury head on shots on a computer monitor. Suddenly it becomes the "worst DQ you have ever seen", and in 2 months there will be another DQ that is the "worst DQ you have ever seen".
The third race Monday night I bet a horse called Milliondollarbaby and I also had it listed on my contest sheet that can clearly be seen at e-ponies.com. When they turned for home I said shit, the #4 Im Inuit ridden by Olaf Hernandez is going to get by my horse, then suddenly I screamed ..."that's it lean in on him a little, you got, you got it". As the horse crossed the line I said to myself, thank god this is at Mountaineer, because anywhere else that would be a DQ. So I log on to twinspires to check my account balance after the 6-1 shot wins it. My account balance doesn't reflect the win, I didn't have to look at the results, I knew right away that they must have brought that horse down and placed him second. Was I mad? no, because it was the right call. S0 what is wrong with you people? If you couldn't see that the lead horse affected the 2nd place finisher, I'm not so sure you are an intelligent race observer.
The only thing I can complain about with the stewards at Mountaineer is the lack of more DQs. There's not too much consistency at Mountaineer, but when they do make a DQ, its usually a pretty damn good decision. I think the reason why Mountaineer players get frustrated is because we see rough race riding at Mountaineer so many nights without DQs, so when there is a DQ, we just think its race riding.
Okay, so I often feel I'm allowed to complain about Mountaineer more than your average player. I may be wrong, but who cares, it is what it is. I often wonder what is wrong with you players that complain about a stewards decision when you only get a few blury head on shots on a computer monitor. Suddenly it becomes the "worst DQ you have ever seen", and in 2 months there will be another DQ that is the "worst DQ you have ever seen".
The third race Monday night I bet a horse called Milliondollarbaby and I also had it listed on my contest sheet that can clearly be seen at e-ponies.com. When they turned for home I said shit, the #4 Im Inuit ridden by Olaf Hernandez is going to get by my horse, then suddenly I screamed ..."that's it lean in on him a little, you got, you got it". As the horse crossed the line I said to myself, thank god this is at Mountaineer, because anywhere else that would be a DQ. So I log on to twinspires to check my account balance after the 6-1 shot wins it. My account balance doesn't reflect the win, I didn't have to look at the results, I knew right away that they must have brought that horse down and placed him second. Was I mad? no, because it was the right call. S0 what is wrong with you people? If you couldn't see that the lead horse affected the 2nd place finisher, I'm not so sure you are an intelligent race observer.
The only thing I can complain about with the stewards at Mountaineer is the lack of more DQs. There's not too much consistency at Mountaineer, but when they do make a DQ, its usually a pretty damn good decision. I think the reason why Mountaineer players get frustrated is because we see rough race riding at Mountaineer so many nights without DQs, so when there is a DQ, we just think its race riding.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Sun Shines Bright on Arizona
by Ralph the Cat
Although a career as a jockey for Arizona Miller seems like the best idea, he has other plans along the way. Arizona Miller will be hanging up his tack as a full-time dedicated jockey as he focuses on school and a wrestling championship. The 16 year old Junior who has put as many long shots in the winners circle as any this fall looks to focus on his last 2 years of high school before dedicating the rest of his life to horse racing. Miller, with 2 mounts left, sits with 11 wins from 224 mounts. Nothing spectacular, but for a 16 year old bug boy at Mountaineer, that's respectable. All you need to do is watch one race of his and you'll respect his desire to win in a jockey colony that's questionable at times.
Winning races is hard enough for any 16 year old bug buy, but trying to get "winning" mounts is an entirely different story at Mountaineer. In a jockey colony where leading rider Deshawn Parker sits 2nd in wins in the nation makes it hard for any rider to get "live" mounts. Then throw in Rex Stokes III and Dana Whitney who both finished in the top 10 last year in total wins in North America. Then you have guys like Scott Spieth grabbing mounts from plenty of shippers and Oswald Pereira dominating the mounts from the small local stables. I often wonder how any other jockey in the jocks room can even get a "live" mount. Then a 16 year old bug boy takes 11 winners into the winners circle between home work assignments in the jocks room. He's no Pat Day, he'll probably never win a grade I, but by golly its not everyday you can count on a jockey at Mountaineer to just try, to just try and win a damn race. Most Jockeys in his situation would quit school and race full-time, well, most of the jockeys he out-rides have already done that. I commend him for what he has accomplished and look forward to his return as a full-time jockey.
Although a career as a jockey for Arizona Miller seems like the best idea, he has other plans along the way. Arizona Miller will be hanging up his tack as a full-time dedicated jockey as he focuses on school and a wrestling championship. The 16 year old Junior who has put as many long shots in the winners circle as any this fall looks to focus on his last 2 years of high school before dedicating the rest of his life to horse racing. Miller, with 2 mounts left, sits with 11 wins from 224 mounts. Nothing spectacular, but for a 16 year old bug boy at Mountaineer, that's respectable. All you need to do is watch one race of his and you'll respect his desire to win in a jockey colony that's questionable at times.
Winning races is hard enough for any 16 year old bug buy, but trying to get "winning" mounts is an entirely different story at Mountaineer. In a jockey colony where leading rider Deshawn Parker sits 2nd in wins in the nation makes it hard for any rider to get "live" mounts. Then throw in Rex Stokes III and Dana Whitney who both finished in the top 10 last year in total wins in North America. Then you have guys like Scott Spieth grabbing mounts from plenty of shippers and Oswald Pereira dominating the mounts from the small local stables. I often wonder how any other jockey in the jocks room can even get a "live" mount. Then a 16 year old bug boy takes 11 winners into the winners circle between home work assignments in the jocks room. He's no Pat Day, he'll probably never win a grade I, but by golly its not everyday you can count on a jockey at Mountaineer to just try, to just try and win a damn race. Most Jockeys in his situation would quit school and race full-time, well, most of the jockeys he out-rides have already done that. I commend him for what he has accomplished and look forward to his return as a full-time jockey.
If You Had a Pulse
by Ralph the Cat
If you had a pulse during last nights card you should have realized at the 1/2 pole of the first race that the :49 and change was a bit odd for the $15k MDNs going 5.5F. Its moments like this when you just have to take everything you knew from last week and throw it out the window, sometimes a few drinks of rum and coke helps the process. Players have so much trouble with figuring out Mountaineers surface and its because the track crew tries to get the track in the best shape to run no matter what the process might be. Dropping some sand on the track to help dry it up and fill in the holes was what the track crew did for this weekends races. So the fast times and early speed bias could be thrown out the window, it was all about who's fit and who's not. Taking a horse like Mr. Flamboyant in the 8th race was a good example. If you didn't realize how much the track changed by the 8th race, you shouldn't even be betting horses, so I don't want to here any crap about my selection of Mr. Flamboyant 2 days before the race was run. Mr. Flamboyant had little if any shot to try and wire that field in the heavy sands of Mountaineer coming off such a long layoff. Another day, another dollar, he might reward those that bet him.
If you had a pulse during last nights card you should have realized at the 1/2 pole of the first race that the :49 and change was a bit odd for the $15k MDNs going 5.5F. Its moments like this when you just have to take everything you knew from last week and throw it out the window, sometimes a few drinks of rum and coke helps the process. Players have so much trouble with figuring out Mountaineers surface and its because the track crew tries to get the track in the best shape to run no matter what the process might be. Dropping some sand on the track to help dry it up and fill in the holes was what the track crew did for this weekends races. So the fast times and early speed bias could be thrown out the window, it was all about who's fit and who's not. Taking a horse like Mr. Flamboyant in the 8th race was a good example. If you didn't realize how much the track changed by the 8th race, you shouldn't even be betting horses, so I don't want to here any crap about my selection of Mr. Flamboyant 2 days before the race was run. Mr. Flamboyant had little if any shot to try and wire that field in the heavy sands of Mountaineer coming off such a long layoff. Another day, another dollar, he might reward those that bet him.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Mama I'm Coming Home
by Ralph the Cat
Saturdays 8th race:
Mr. Flamboyant, the 3 year old grey colt with an alarming pedigree comes back to Mountaineer after a 7 month layoff to sit at 3/1 in Mountaineers feature race on Saturday. Mr. Flamboyant remains winless when trying 3 different synthetic surfaces in his 2 and 3 year old campaign. His last win was at Mountaineer in November of 2007 win he drew away with authority to win by nearly 10 lengths in a 5.5F event for non-winners of 2 lifetime. His other win was a MSW score at Mountaineer in which he drew off by more than 7 lengths. The layoff is going to keep him at a respectable 5/2 or higher while the Clayton Hurt trainee, #4 Prince of Saltlake will be the heavy favorite and rightfully so. The main concern for the #4 Prince of Saltlake is the jockey switch from Ronald Allen to a less talented Nathan Vickers. While there is reason to talk down the favorite there is every bit the reason to talk up the second choice entry Mr. Flamboyant. Mr. Flamboyant along with trainer Sherman Mitchell finished both a 4th in a stake race and 2nd in a 3 in a lifetime race when coming off a layoff of more than 3 months. On top of that, he puts in 2 bullet works including an impressive 5F work in 1:01 flat. With 3 speed balls in the race, the race sets up well for a hard charging closers, but with the track favoring speed more than ever, Mr. Flamboyant has the best chance to take them gate to wire. Mr. Flamboyant, a grey colt that earned a 100 Brisnet Speed Figure last year, plays every bit the part.
Saturdays 8th race:
Mr. Flamboyant, the 3 year old grey colt with an alarming pedigree comes back to Mountaineer after a 7 month layoff to sit at 3/1 in Mountaineers feature race on Saturday. Mr. Flamboyant remains winless when trying 3 different synthetic surfaces in his 2 and 3 year old campaign. His last win was at Mountaineer in November of 2007 win he drew away with authority to win by nearly 10 lengths in a 5.5F event for non-winners of 2 lifetime. His other win was a MSW score at Mountaineer in which he drew off by more than 7 lengths. The layoff is going to keep him at a respectable 5/2 or higher while the Clayton Hurt trainee, #4 Prince of Saltlake will be the heavy favorite and rightfully so. The main concern for the #4 Prince of Saltlake is the jockey switch from Ronald Allen to a less talented Nathan Vickers. While there is reason to talk down the favorite there is every bit the reason to talk up the second choice entry Mr. Flamboyant. Mr. Flamboyant along with trainer Sherman Mitchell finished both a 4th in a stake race and 2nd in a 3 in a lifetime race when coming off a layoff of more than 3 months. On top of that, he puts in 2 bullet works including an impressive 5F work in 1:01 flat. With 3 speed balls in the race, the race sets up well for a hard charging closers, but with the track favoring speed more than ever, Mr. Flamboyant has the best chance to take them gate to wire. Mr. Flamboyant, a grey colt that earned a 100 Brisnet Speed Figure last year, plays every bit the part.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Have You Ever Seen The Rain?
by Ralph the Cat
A great song written by John Fogerty in 1970, but Mountaineer players are more focused on "Who'll Stop The Rain" for Saturdays card. With no more Friday night racing for the next few months most Mountaineer players are going through withdrawal. The only thing we can think about throughout the week is if the weather is going to let us run. With several days of mixed snow and rain we cross our fingers in hopes of Saturday's 9 race card with 8 full fields including a full field of $30,000 claimers. "Who'll Stop The Rain" remains to be unanswered.
A great song written by John Fogerty in 1970, but Mountaineer players are more focused on "Who'll Stop The Rain" for Saturdays card. With no more Friday night racing for the next few months most Mountaineer players are going through withdrawal. The only thing we can think about throughout the week is if the weather is going to let us run. With several days of mixed snow and rain we cross our fingers in hopes of Saturday's 9 race card with 8 full fields including a full field of $30,000 claimers. "Who'll Stop The Rain" remains to be unanswered.
Cruel and Unusual Punishment
by Ralph the Cat
Cancelling the race cards on Saturday and Sunday made it hard for the Mountaineer cult to accept, but watching the chalk wire the field in 10 of the 18 races held on Monday and Tuesday sent them into a dark and lonesome corner. The wire-to-wire winners paid from $2.40 to $8.80 and crippled the long-shot players. If the lead horse at the 3/8th pole didn't bringing home the bacon Monday and Tuesday nights, it seemed the horse tucked right behind the lead horse did.
Leave it to Super Trainer Louis Roberto Jr.'s runner to defy odds and come from a close stalking position to win at $11.40 in Tuesdays 5th and the hard hitting Oswald Pereira to close on a 4/1 shot in the 8th Tuesday night. Players found it hard to believe that getting a price included the name Louis Roberto. The biggest price of the week was bug boy Arizona Millers ride in the 5th Monday night bringing Broad Sweep to the wire in front at 18-1 and scoring his 7th win of the meet.
Parker showed why he is the best at the Mountain scoring 2 wins on the frozen track on Monday and 5 wins in the slop on Tuesday. Oswald Pereira put the triple together Tuesday after scoring one win on Monday. With just a few weeks left of racing, Parker stamped his ticket to another jockey title by cushioning his lead by nearly 30 wins.
The highlight of the week was Scooter Davis's claim in the 9th Monday night. The Super Trainer claimed Miss Diamondlegs who looked leg weary while trailing the field to a last place finish.
Cancelling the race cards on Saturday and Sunday made it hard for the Mountaineer cult to accept, but watching the chalk wire the field in 10 of the 18 races held on Monday and Tuesday sent them into a dark and lonesome corner. The wire-to-wire winners paid from $2.40 to $8.80 and crippled the long-shot players. If the lead horse at the 3/8th pole didn't bringing home the bacon Monday and Tuesday nights, it seemed the horse tucked right behind the lead horse did.
Leave it to Super Trainer Louis Roberto Jr.'s runner to defy odds and come from a close stalking position to win at $11.40 in Tuesdays 5th and the hard hitting Oswald Pereira to close on a 4/1 shot in the 8th Tuesday night. Players found it hard to believe that getting a price included the name Louis Roberto. The biggest price of the week was bug boy Arizona Millers ride in the 5th Monday night bringing Broad Sweep to the wire in front at 18-1 and scoring his 7th win of the meet.
Parker showed why he is the best at the Mountain scoring 2 wins on the frozen track on Monday and 5 wins in the slop on Tuesday. Oswald Pereira put the triple together Tuesday after scoring one win on Monday. With just a few weeks left of racing, Parker stamped his ticket to another jockey title by cushioning his lead by nearly 30 wins.
The highlight of the week was Scooter Davis's claim in the 9th Monday night. The Super Trainer claimed Miss Diamondlegs who looked leg weary while trailing the field to a last place finish.
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