Longshot Players Take it on The Chin in 2008

by Chris Longshot

Looking back on 2008, there are three things I thought I would never be alive to see, one, was a black president, two was the Phillies winning the World Series and three, most shockingly, the “chalkiness” of Mountaineer racing in 2008!! If I was playing Texas Hold Em Poker I would have went “all in” and lost all my chips on the prospect of Mountaineer turning into a “favorite track”. Have to admit I didn't see it coming, still in denial actually, refusing to accept this reversal of fortune. But the statistics don’t lie, in 2008, favorites won at a near 40% clip, higher than the national average, the favorite was ITM at over 70% and we saw the rebirth of the “supertrainer” almost overnight at the mountain. After months and months of less competitive racing, short chalks, wire jobs and strung out fields, it would be safe to say that 2008 at the mountain was longshot players Waterloo!!! The “mad bomber” and his cronies had a banner year, where they were marching through the streets of Chester as chalk after chalk after chalk paraded in, while longshot players were left gasping for air, or better yet their horses were. So what is going to be the outlook for 2009? I’m afraid not much is going to change but I have hope, my mom always told me the first thing you do in solving a problem is to identify what has caused this trend to develop in the first place, so let’s indulge in one of the 3 causes and feel free to comment, whether you agree or disagree.

The unfortunate and untimely death of Waterford’s finest; Dale Baird, sent shockwaves throughout the whole racing industry. Despite, his harshest critics, who would have put an asterisk next to Baird’s unprecedented win total, most would admit that Baird’s loss was monumental. However, many could easily conclude that racing at Mountaineer would never be the same without the “Wizard”. The impact would be great but to what extent?? Secondly, what would happen to Baird’s horses?? Initially, Penny Mathias, Baird’s assistant trainer, took over the training and had some moderate success. A few months later Baird’s son, Bart had taken over a few of his dad’s horses with little success. While Baird’s death was untimely, the impact and the elimination of his runners from the MNR ‘gene pool” has affected Mountaineer racing greatly. Many of Baird’s horses filtered down to lower percentage outfits and though most did not improve off Baird, many of Baird’s horses brought home paychecks for their claimants.

Throughout history, there have been numerous instances were other people have taken advantage of others peoples misfortune. This is no more evident then the rise of the “supertrainer” at the mountain. Let me explain, many in the industry respected Dale’s stock and knew if they expected to win at the mountain they had to come strong or not at all. Most did come well represented but generally still left the mountain without the winner’s portion of the purse. Some trainers were scared away, despite the increased purses and extra incentive to come. But as good as Baird was, his reputation proceeded himself. His horses often took “dumb money” from less polished newbie’s. This created nice juicy overlays for the longshot players, willing to shoot against Baird’s horses. When Baird died, many trainers started to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Trainers like Shaneyfelt and Englehart to name a few, began to make the trip to the Northern Pan Handle but this time stocked with more runners. The question soon was, who would be the next trainer to dominate the Mountain? Most MNR followers would have place their bets that it would be Jeff Radosevich, who won a trainer title from Baird a few years back. However, he had an extremely difficult year at the mountain in 2008. The two mentioned above, along with another Baird family member, MJ Baird, have been at the top of the standings for most of the year. The surprise is not that these trainers have been successful, they are all well respected but it’s the degree at which it has been achieved. Doug Shaneyfelt was a 50% trainer at one point, Englehart a cut below but with almost equal percentage. Scooter Davis, had a sudden rebirth, reverting back to when he was a dominant trainer at the mountain. The greatest impact has been felt in the allowance ranks, where horses trained by these guys have the fields at their mercy on most nights. Even in the condition claimers their presence is felt, their horses are going to post at 3/5, 4/5 and 90% of the time, they have not disappointed their followers. In my opinion, the rise of these supertainers, the elimination of Dale and his stock, and a sharper betting public has contributed to the longshot player’s worst nightmare, Broke Back Mountain!!! Longshot players have suffered, lower percentage outfits have suffered, the quality of racing has suffered, while chalk players have strived and handle has gone up generally. It seems more players are more comfortable with the more “formful” mountain then the indecipherable mess of the past few years. Lastly, longshot players need to forget 2008 and look forward to 2009 because as many players who religiously follow the mountain know, things are known to change unexpectedly, 50% trainer this year, 15% trainer next year, will the march of favorites continue or will the longshot players get the last laugh, only time will tell but the unfortunate loss of Dale Baird and his stock even in death has flipped Mountaineer racing upside down for the good for some and the bad and the ugly for others. Next blog next week will be cause two, a follow up on another reason that longshot players were puking in their soup in 2008: track bias.