Mountaineer Racing Summed Up In One Word: Bias

By Chris Longshot

Looking back on the 2008 version of Mountaineer racing, I cannot help but think I could sum it up in one simple word: bias. Obviously, not surprising to most Mountaineer enthusiasts, since most would agree Mountaineer has generally been a speed dominant track. Of course there were nights where stalkers and closers would do well but on most nights, short priced chalk were wiring fields with half of the field in their own race 20 lengths back. Towards the end of the year, it became quite apparent that if a speed bias was not in effect, an inside post bias/path bias was. This type a bias did not favor speed, stalkers or closers, just the inside posts, specifically posts 1-6 and specifically in the stretch. A path bias soon developed at Mountaineer and as a result playing outside horses(7-10)especially ones who had no speed was a recipe for disaster and for your bankroll. For a lot of longshot enthusiasts, this was not good news. Many of Mountaineer's longshots, who had a sudden reversal of forms have come from wide closers sweeping by the field late in the stretch or by certain track conditions waking them up. Days of longshots going to the top and wiring fields were long gone, these days they run for a half and quit. In the past, a wide bias was much more pronounced but not in the year 2008. In the last few months alone, I have witnessed numerous higher priced closers, who were just about on even terms or a couple lengths back from their counterparts entering the stretch and inexplicably hung or looked like they were running in quicksand, making up no further ground. A great example of this was back on December 29th. The horse in question was the #7 horse, Creative Edge at 33-1 in Mnr's 5th, look at the replay to get a better understanding of my point. Creative Edge raced wide the whole race began to make a big move nearing the turn, thought Davila should have stayed closer to the rail or dipped in further to the rail, it was open but I guess he didn't know a bias was in play for months. So they come around the far turn, of course a couple of the short priced inside horses are battling up front, appear to be tiring but the #7 Creative Edge appears to be coming best of all out wide, for some reason Davila continues to bring the horse out yet another path, the horse then is making no further impression and the speeds on the inside are continuing on easily. Now no doubt the winner was legit, being the post time favorite anyway, the second horse ran an unbelievable race at 87-1 from the #8 post no less but did flash speed unlike the #7. My overall point is that on a non biased track IMO, the #7 horse goes right by the tiring leaders and wins at 33-1. Now I know most would suggest that the horse simply hung, after making up a lot ground around the turn but I don't believe that to be the case. Shortly after "flattening out" under the right handed whip the horse sways over to another path closer to the rail and suddenly now starts gaining again but unfortunately much to late to get to the leaders. This is just one example and there are many others of closers who have made big moves around the turn only to flatten out mid stretch while inside horses glide along easily. Its a big reason why more than a few have been frustrated with the short prices there lately. The closers/ mid pack horses have to run so big to win, especially entering the stretch wide. So one might say, I'll put the #7 Creative Edge on my stable alert and wait till he gets a more favorable post since he ran against the bit. He would run overlaid and I would be rewarded for my observations at a fat price. Strange thing is, looking at entries, miraculously a lot of the chalks have been drawn to the inside. Is this done by lottery or is it just a coincidence? I don't know, now that I think of it, I have never see 3 or 4 longshots in the first 3 or 4 posts at Mountaineer together as of late, I guess only when the track is outside bias I will see this. When you do see a longshot drawn towards the rail, there usually so hopeless that no bias would improve their performance. Guess we will get no help from the person that does the entries. There is also an a bias that is not as easily perceptible. Its when a horse is almost on even terms rounding the turn. Visually, he's 1 maybe 2 lengths behind, however, when they straighten, he's suddenly 4 to 5 lengths behind the field, watch it, its pretty cool, what happened? can a horse flatten out around a turn? Seems to me the inside horses get a nice slingshot around the turn, getting an extra boost I guess, while the outside horses stays where they were originally, unless they do go backwards and forward at the same time. So not to overbeat a point, the inside paths have been the place to be, everyone knows it, its amazing how many jocks from outside posts refuse to go to the rail and come up there late to be competitive, I can assure you its open at some point. It's really the their only chance of winning, if they can't get the lead clearly and get over to the rail. Yes they will be prominent early if they have speed or can at least stalk but won't be around late I can assure you. Sometimes I find it hilarious how many jocks can't figure out a bias, especially at a bias track at Mountaineer. The top guys can but usually the jocks piloting longshots cannot or are scared by the rail. So what do we have took look forward to in 2009 you might ask? Probably more chalks drawn to the inside, more longshots to the outer posts. Seems Mountaineer no longer likes chaos aspect of a few years ago, they much prefer the chalk to keep rolling in. Between the anti wide bias, supertrainers, elimination of Dale's stock and sharper betting public, its no wonder the chalk players were thriving in 2008, while the longshot players were puking in there soup as mentioned in a previous blog. But there is yet another reason for the short prices, non competitive fields and decreased quality of racing, explained in detail sometime this week before the racing resumes, part 3: synthetic surfaces. Lastly, feel free to comment on the blog, agree, disagree or offer some insight yourself on you experiences with the biases there, I will admit I'm not great at tracking biases, just wanted to pass along the little I could.